Saturday, November 7, 2009

CHOP CHOP CHOP

Another week or so and we're back to where we started, DJI above 10k, and S&P back above 1060. However, the signals are no longer clear, and although we have confirmation that the rising wedge has broken down, we are retesting the bottom trend and may even make an attempt at the top of the bear channel again.

Here are a few charts I've been watching.

SPX

As mentioned, we broke down with volume and strength, and a retest (but not break) above the blue line will be a good short entry.

DJI

We've been operating in a pretty clean ascending channel, and the bounce this week respected the trendline. There are no clean bearish signals on the dow, so keep watching for weakness at the blue and confirmation of breakdown when if we break green.

XLF

The financials couldn't hold that minor support line this week and have made a lower low. This is bearish and may lead the market downward. Watch for the narrow downtrend to hold.

NDX

Tech may have double bottomed earlier, but we're in a historically range of congestion and resistance. If a right shoulder is formed here, the H&S should at least resolve to test the blue line.

TRAN

Transportation index looks like a clean double top has formed. Note that this is the first time a lower low has been made since March. Wait for a lower high and then follow the gently sloping downtrend for trade signals.

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